Table of Content
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1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY /1
2. BACKGROUND /5
　 2.1. PRESENT SITUATION IN CHINA /5
　 2.2. SNDP AND EAST ROUTE /7
　 2.3. PROJECT AREA /8
　 　 2.3.1. Climate Conditions /11
　 　 2.3.2. Water Resources Conditions /12
　 　 　 RIVER SYSTEM /13
　 　 　 WATER RESOURCES /15
　 　 2.3.3. Social and economic conditions /16
　 　 　 Education /19
　 　 　 Health /19
　 　 　 Communication /20
　 　 　 Energy /20
3. METHODOLOGY /21
　 3.1. CLIMATE CHANGE MODELS /24
　 　 3.1.1. SINTEXG global coupled climate model /25
　 　 3.1.2. NCC/IAP T63 and RegCM3 global and regional coupled climate models /28
　 　 3.1.3. NCC Hydrological models for climate studies /29
　 　 　 NCC SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) model: /29
　 　 　 NCC Xin An Jiang Model (monthly distribution hydrological model) /29
　 　 　 NCC AVIM (Vegetation Interaction Model): /29
　 3.2. HYDRAULIC MODULE /30
　 　 3.2.1. Rowas /31
　 　 3.2.2. ResSim /39
　 3.3. SOCIO-ECONOMIC MODULE /52
　 　 3.3.1. Introduction /52
　 　 3.3.2. Indicators /54
　 　 3.3.3. Environmental Computable General Equilibrium Model /55
　 　 　 Specifying the Behavioural Equations /59
　 　 　 Collecting the Required Information /60
　 　 　 Solving For Behavioural Equations /62
　 　 3.3.4. Multi Criteria Analysis /64
　 　 　 Defining the Overall Objective Function /64
　 　 　 Building a Constraint Maximisation Problem at Municipal Level /64
　 　 　 Constructing a Constraint Maximisation Problem at Province Level /64
　 3.4. INTEGRATION BETWEEN MODULES /65
　 　 3.4.1. Integration water resources models (rowas+resim) /65
　 　 3.4.2. Integration-climate change to water resources module /69
　 　 3.4.3. Integration water resources to socio-economic module /73
　 3.5. INTEGRATED MODEL /74
　 　 3.5.1. Building of Scenarios /74
4. EVALUATION OF THE EAST ROUTE IMPACT /77
　 4.1. CLIMATE CHANGE /77
　 　 4.1.1. Observations /77
　 　 　 Climate change over the past 50 years /77
　 　 　 Climate change in the past 100 years /80
　 　 　 Dryness evolution of the past 500 years /81
　 　 　 Estimation of possible precipitation trend /86
　 　 4.1.2. Scenarios /87
　 　 4.1.3. Models results /89
　 　 　 The GCMs results /89
　 　 　 The INGV _ SINTEXG model results /90
　 　 　 Global climate model NCC/IAP T63 /95
　 　 　 Regional climate model RegCM3 /96
　 　 4.1.4. Models results on the impacts of climate change on water and biomes /98
　 　 　 POSSIBLE CHANGE IN WATER AVAILABILITY /98
　 　 　 POSSIBLE CHANGE IN VEGETATION /106
　 　 4.1.5. Findings /109
　 4.2. WATER RESOURCES /110
　 　 4.2.1. Scenarios /110
　 　 　 HYDROLOGIC SITUATION /110
　 　 　 EFFECT OF THE DIVERSION /110
　 　 4.2.2. Models results /111
　 　 　 ROWAS RESULTS /111
　 　 　 RESSIM RESULTS /130
　 　 4.2.3. Findings /141
　 　 　 WATER RESOURCES FINDINGS /141
　 　 　 East route management findings /141
　 4.3. SOCIO ECONOMY /143
　 　 4.3.1. Scenarios /143
　 　 4.3.2. Models results /144
　 　 　 Average years /145
　 　 　 Dry years /172
　 　 4.3.3. Findings /173
　 4.4. CONCLUSION /173
　 　 4.4.1. Climate change conclusion /173
　 　 4.4.2. Water resources conclusion /173
　 　 4.4.3. Socio-economic conclusion /174
5. STAKEHOLDERS INVOLVEMENT /175
　 5.1. INTEREST RELATIONS THAT MAY GENERATE FROM THE SOUTH-TO-NORTH WATER DIVERSION PROJECT (EAST ROUTE) /176
　 　 5.1.1. Interest relations between governmental management departments /176
　 　 　 Harmony between the Central Government and local governments /176
　 　 　 Harmony of interests between different governmental departments /176
　 　 　 Harmony between local governments of different intake areas /177
　 　 　 Harmony between management organs of different drainage areas /177
　 　 　 Harmony between management organs of drainage areas and local administrative departments of water /178
　 　 5.1.2. Investment and construction process /178
　 　 　 Interest distribution among main body of investment construction /178
　 　 　 Harmony of Interest between investment construction body and emigrant /178
　 　 5.1.3. Operation process /178
　 　 　 Harmony between water diversion companies and water supply companies /178
　 　 　 Harmony between different water users in the same intake area /179
　 　 　 Harmony between the administrative functional departments and the water supply companies in various provinces /179
　 5.2. ANALYSIS OF THE STAKEHOLDERS /180
　 　 5.2.1. Governmental management departments /180
　 　 　 The South-to-North Water Diversion Project Construction Committee under the State Council /180
　 　 　 The State Development and Reform Commission /181
　 　 　 The Ministry of Water Resources /181
　 　 　 Management organs of drainage areas /181
　 　 　 Leadership organizations of the construction of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project of the relevant provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the Central Government along the route and their working bodies /182
　 　 　 The Ministry of Construction /182
　 　 　 The State Environmental Protection Administration /182
　 　 　 The local governments (at provincial, municipal and county levels) along the route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project /182
　 　 5.2.2. Investment and construction processes /182
　 　 　 The project entity of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project /182
　 　 　 The water supply (distribution) companies of various provinces and cities /183
　 　 　 The units performing the project management /183
　 　 　 Lending banks /183
　 　 　 Emigrants /183
　 　 5.2.3. Operation process of the project /183
　 　 　 Enterprises (of the primary, secondary and tertiary industry) /183
　 　 　 Residents (urban and rural residents) /183
　 5.3. QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS OF THE IMPACTS ON STAKEHOLDERS /184
　 　 5.3.1. Analysis on WATER CONSUMPTION for the primary industry and industrial enterprises /184
　 　 5.3.2. Analysis on shareholders for urban and rural residents /187
　 5.4. ESTABLISHMENT OF EFFECTIVE MANAGEMENT AND OPERATION MECHANISMS FOR THE SOUTH- TO-NORTH WATER DIVERSION PROJECT /189
　 　 5.4.1. Managerial system of water resources /191
　 　 　 The existing managerial system of water resources in our country /191
　 　 5.4.2. Establishment of reasonable and effective managerial systems of water resources /192
　 　 　 Strengthening the unified administration of water resources /192
　 　 　 Establishing the water right system and attaching importance to the ascription of water rights /193
　 　 5.4.3. Managerial system of the construction of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project /194
　 　 5.4.4. Investment and financing systems of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project /196
　 　 　 Determination of the investments apportioned by the provinces along the route /198
　 　 　 Clarifying the economic properties of the project and determining the main bodies of investment /198
　 　 　 Determination of the proportions of the Central Government and the local governments in the public welfare investments /199
　 　 　 Determination of equity financing and debt financing in various investments /199
　 　 5.4.5. Water price forming mechanism /200
　 　 　 Composition of water price /201
　 　 　 Water price forming mechanism /202
　 　 　 Water prices for different stakeholders /203
　 　 　 Coming into being of the water market /204
　 　 5.4.6. Water Amount Distribution Mechanism /205
　 　 　 Water Diversion Principles /205
　 　 　 Ascertaining the Amount of Water Scarcity /206
　 　 　 Ascertaining the Water Diversion Amount /207
　 　 　 Diverting Water Amount According to Law /208
　 　 5.4.7. Interest Compensating Mechanism /208
　 　 　 Ascertaining the Loss /209
　 　 　 Making Appropriate Migration Policy /209
　 　 　 Separating the Budgetary Estimation of Compensation Investment for Land- Expropriated Emigrants and the Budgetary Estimation of Major Project /210
　 　 　 Enhancing the Supply of Relevant Laws and Regulations /210
　 　 　 Enhancing the Supervision upon Emigrant Relocation /212
6. ECOLOGICAL IMPACT /213
　 6.1. NEGATIVE ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS OF SOUTH-TO-NORTH WATER DIVERSION PROJECT AND THEIR ASSESSMENT /213
　 　 6.1.1. South-to-North Water Diversion Project's impact on the recharge of groundwater /213
　 　 6.1.2. South-to-North Water Diversion Project's promotion for the environmental governance /214
　 6.2. QUANTITATIVE ASSESSMENT OF ENVIRONMENTAL BENEFITS /215
　 　 6.2.1. Objectives and method of survey /215
　 　 6.2.2. Assessment of the average ecological and environmental benefit in the regions along the east route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project /215
　 6.3. DETERMINATION OF ECOLOGICAL ENVIRONMENT COEFFICIENTS OF DIFFERENT CITIES /216
　 6.4. ASSESSMENT FOR WATER CONSUMPTION IN ECOLOGICAL ENVIRONMENT OF SOUTH-TO-NORTH WATER DIVERSION PROJECT(SNDP) /217
　 6.5. ASSESSMENT OF THE ECOLOGICAL AND ENVIRONMENTAL VALUE OF THE VARIOUS REGIONS ALONG THE EAST ROUTE OF THE SOUTH-TO-NORTH WATER DIVERSION PROJECT /218
7. DATABASE /221
8. ANNEXES /223
　 8.1. WATER RESOURCES/239
　 　 8.1.1. ROWAS MODEL /223
　 　 　 Objectives of Rowas Application /223
　 　 　 System Elements & Framework /223
　 　 　 Rule set & Functional Modules /224
　 　 　 RULE SET /224
　 　 　 CLASSIFICATION OF WATER SOURCES & USERS /226
　 　 　 FUNCTIONAL MODULES /227
　 　 8.1.2. ResSim Model /230
　 　 　 WATERSHED SETUP MODULE /230
　 　 　 RESERVOIR NETWORK MODULE /231
　 　 　 SIMULATION MODULE /233
　 8.2. SOCIO-ECONOMIC /233
　 　 8.2.1. Social Accounting Matrix /233
　 　 8.2.2. Environmental Computable General Equilibrium Model /236
　 　 　 Definitions /236
　 　 　 Assumptions /236
　 　 　 The 28 equations /237
　 　 　 The 25 variables /237
　 　 8.2.3. Economic, social and environmental indicators /237
　 　 8.2.4. Social, environmental and economic objectives /238
　 　 8.2.5. The MCA /238
9. ROSTER OF EXPERTS /241
　 9.1.1 CHINESE ACADEMY OF SOCIAL SCIENCES /241
　 9.1.2 MINISTRY OF WATER RESOURCES /242
　 9.1.3 CHINA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION /243
　 9.1.4 ITALIAN EXPERTS /244
10. REFERENCES /247